I still follow a few of the local people on Twitter so yesterday I saw an article from The Athletic about Jack Johnson ($) and saw the replies from Jesse Marshall and Josh Yohe responding to a fan that was complaining they are trying to defend Johnson and that he still sucks. That isn’t what the article was about though, so I thought I would take a stab at it since I rather enjoy playing with stats.
So I am going to take a look at Jack Johnson’s performance under Mike Sullivan with the Pittsburgh Penguins these past two seasons as well as the prior three seasons when he played for Sullivan’s mentor John Tortorella on the Columbus Blue Jackets. In order to compare it accurately I used a WOWY, taking the team’s D totals minus Johnson’s numbers (i.e. how the team plays when he is not on the ice) and used that to look at relative values to see how his performance stacks up compared to previous years.
Player Usage
This year he averages 15.2 5-on-5 minutes per game, which is a -1.0 TOI Rel and is the 6th of 10 D on the team. Last year under Sully he skated 16.1 which is -0.3 Rel and was 5th of 11 D on the team. His last year in Columbus under Torts he skated 16.6 which is 0.3 Rel and was 3rd of 11 D on his team. In 2016-17 he averaged 18.1 which is 2.3 Rel and was 3rd of 10 D on his team. In Tortorella’s first year with Columbus he skated 17.7 which is 2.0 Rel and was 2nd of 13 D on his team.
His QoC (TOI%) is 28.1 this year (#8), it was 28.9 last year (#4) and 28.8 the year before that (#4) but was 29.0 in 2016-17 (#2) and 29.2 in 2015-16 (#1). His QoT (TOI%) is 27.6 this year (#10), it was 27.7 last year (#4) and 27.3 the year prior to that (#5) but was 28.3 in 2016-17 (#2) and 28.0 in 2015-16 (#2).
The first thing we see is that while he is skating fewer minutes it’s not that far off from how he was used last year and that he had already started seeing less ice time the year before signing with the Pens, basically being a middle of the lineup #4/5 guy in both 2018-19 and 2017-18. However, he was a top pairing D back in 2016-17 and 2015-16 which is what people were hoping he would be in Pittsburgh, but at this point in his career his is just a 3rd pairing guy.
His OZ% Rel this year is -0.82, DZ% Rel is 0.012, and his ZS% Rel a -0.084. He was much more sheltered last year with a 0.038 OZ% Rel, -0.035 DZ% Rel, and a 0.065 ZS% Rel. His numbers in Columbus were varied but he didn’t have sheltered starts back then. His OZ% Rel was -0.021 in 2017-18, -0.062 in 2016-17, and -0-051 in 2015-16. His DZ% Rel was 0.059 in 2017-18, 0.081 in 2016-17, and -0.006 in 2015-16. Lastly his ZS% Rel was -0.068 in in 2017-18, -0.120 in 2016-17, and -0.046 in 2015-16.
The biggest difference in his usage is seen when comparing how the Penguins deployed him last year and how he is being used this year. Last year he was a Top 4 D with heavily sheltered O-Zone starts whereas this year he may only be skating 3rd pairing minutes against lesser opponents but he has done so while getting tougher starts. Prior to joining Pittsburgh he was more of a top D and and tended to have more heavily tilted zone starts but that just makes last year’s sheltered usage seem all the more unusual.
Scoring
Offensively he isn’t great but anybody that was expecting Johnson to be an offensive dynamo was bound to be disappointed. This year his GF60 Rel is a -0.49, which is significantly better than last year when he had a -0.74 GF60 Rel. His final year in Columbus he had a -0.39 GF60 Rel and he was a 0.04 GF60 Rel in 2016-17 although just a -0.52 GF60 Rel during Tortorella’s first season coaching Columbus in 2015-16. For FSh% Rel he was at 0.2 this this but last year all the way down at a -1.1 FSh% Rel. With the Blue Jackets back in 2017-18 he had a -0.2 FSh% Rel and the year before that was at -0.1 FSh% Rel, but back in 2015-16 he was a -1.3 FSh% Rel.
Defensively he has been phenomenal this year with a -1.05 GA60Rel and a 2.2 CSv% Rel. He was much worse the past two season, he had a 0.58 GA60 Rel and -0.6 CSv% Rel his first year with the Pens in 2018-19 and a 0.41 GA60 Rel and -0.5 CSv% Rel during his final season in Columbus in 2017-18. He was better back when he was still a top pairing D, he was a -0.06 GA60 Rel and 0.3 CSv% Rel in 2016-17 and was a -0.14 GA60 Rel and 0.4 CSv% Rel in 2015-16.
Despite a less tan stellar offensive performance his goal differential has been the best it has been in recent years, this season he is a 9.0 GF% Rel. His first year in Pittsburgh last season e was an abysmal -13.5 GF% Rel while his final season in Columbus he was a -8.6 GF% Rel. He wasn’t bad as a top pairing D back in 2016-17 wen he had a 1.1 GF% Rel but in 2015-16 he had a -4.8 GF% Rel.
Lastly we look at luck, this year Johnson is at a 4.1 PDO Rel whereas last year with the Penguins he was a -2.2 PDO Rel. Back in Columbus in 2017-18 he was a -1.1 PDO Rel, in 2016-17 a 0.4 PDO Rel, and in 2015-16 a -0.8 PDO Rel.
So what we can see this year is that while Johnson isn’t doing that great offensively it is still miles beyond his performance last year. Additionally his defensive performance has been remarkable, better than any other in recent memory and quite a lot better than he has been in the prior two seasons. Of course one must also take into consideration that he is now skating 3rd pairing minutes against lesser opponents, but he hasn’t had easy zone starts so that kind of defensive performance isn’t something to be taken lightly. Then again with how high his PDO is it would be safe to say his current performance is unsustainable, but even so he does appear to be playing much better as a 3rd liner this season than he did as a 2nd pairing D the prior 2 seasons.
Puck Possession
Offensively the team does not generate many shots while he is on the ice, partly this of course is due to the fact that he is a 3rd pairing D who predominantly skates with the Bottom 6, but ultimately he is just a bottom of the lineup defensive D so it is silly to expect too much from him offensively. This year he is a -6.8 SF60 Rel, even worse than he was the past two seasons which were both a -4.7 SF60 Rel. He was a lot better as a top pairing D, he was at 1.5 SF60 Rel in 2016-17 and 0.5 SF60 Rel in 2015-16. They have been a little better at generating scoring chances though, he was -1.7 SCF60 Rel this season while he was a -2.5 CSF60 Rel last season and -2.4 SCF60 Rel during his final year in Columbus, although he was at 0.8 SCF60 Rel in 2016-17 but all the way down at -2.1 SCF60 Rel in 2015-16.
Defensively though he has been playing rather well, which while he doesn’t face a very difficult QoC as a 3rd pairing D he does have rather difficult zone starts so his ability to limit shots is actually kind of impressive. So far this season he is at a -0.1 SA60 Rel while he was at a 3.2 SA60 Rel last season, a 1.7 SA60 Rel with Columbus in 2017-18, a 2.0 SA60 Rel in 2016-17, and a 2.4 SA60 Rel in 2015-16. Then scoring chances allowed Johnson was at a 0.8 SCA60 Rel this year but all the way up at a 2.3 SCA60 Rel his first year with the Pens and a 1.8 SCA60 Rel his final season with the Blue Jackets, although as a top pairing D he was at a -0.2 SCA60 Rel in 2016-17 and a 2.6 SCA60 Rel in 2015-16.
Overall puck possession differential has not been good during the past 3 seasons as a bottom 4 D, he was a -5.4 SF% Rel this year, -6.2 SF% Rel last year, and -5.0 SF% Rel the year before that. However back when he was a top 2 D in Columbus he was better, he was at -0.4 SF% Rel in 2016-17 and -1.6 SF% Rel in 2015-16. Likewise scoring chance differential we see his SCF% Rel this year was -2.6 whereas he had a -4.5 SCF% Rel in 2018-19 and a -3.9 SCF60 Rel in 2017-18. Back in 2016-17 he was a much more effective 1.0 SCF% Rel but was still a -4.7 SCF% Rel back in 2015-16.
What we see is that he has never been that great at puck possession, even back when he was a top pairing D he still had a habit of getting outworked but he has been especially ineffective over the past 3 seasons. He hasn’t been that bad defensively this year, but certainly much better than he was over the previous two seasons. He has been skating less minutes against lesser opponents, but he has also been skating tough zone starts.
Conclusion
So if the question is has Jack Johnson been terrible this year the answer is no. He has been great defensively and has done much better in nearly every regard than he has been over the past two seasons (his first under Sullivan in 2018-19 and his last under Tortorella in 2017-18).
If the question is has Jack Johnson been good this year the answer is maybe. Quite obviously he is not the same player he was in his prime, and he is certainly not worth the dollar amount and contract length that Jim Rutherford signed him to, but he is thriving this year playing 3rd pairing minutes in the new system that relies heavily on total team defense and quality over quantity.
There is reason to be concerned, his PDO suggests his current performance is unsustainable, and with recent long term injuries on D it will be much more difficult to give him the sheltered 3rd pairing minutes which he has been thriving under. However, even bearing that in mind he has still managed to play well while skating heavy D-zone time and there is no doubt that he has been better this year than he was over the past two seasons. Feel free to be upset at Rutherford for signing him to the ridiculous contract, but Johnson has proven that he is more than capable of being a serviceable 3rd pairing D.
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