Unconventional Wisdom – Expected Goal Models part 3

Last time I went over advanced stats I was comparing the different puck possession metrics to see how they compare to teams’ places in the standings. In doing that, I also took a look at the Score & Venue Adjusted metrics from various fancystats sites. Prior to that I also looked at Expected Goal models from various analytics sites and compared them to actual goals, slowly discovering additional sites I was unaware of after I began. So this time I wanted to compare those Expected Goal models to how well they correlate with the standings as well as seeing how their adjusted data compares to their standard raw data versions of their Expected Goals models.

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Unconventional Wisdom – Pearson Correlation Coefficients 2023-26

Continuing on into my look at what stats I should focus on in the modern NHL we are going to compare regular season standings to various statistics. When I started looking into fancystats back in 2012 it was at the height of puck possession being the be-all, end-all of hockey analytics. However, trends change throughout the league, as more teams started focusing on puck possession it became less impactful and then we started seeing those focus on shot quality were succeeding. The league goes in cycles, sometimes scoring is up and other times it is down, sometimes the focus is all out offense and other times the trends are more towards playing responsible defense. So for that reason we need to revisit this premise every few years to see how things are currently trending across the league, and I opted to look at the past three seasons 2023-24 through 2025-26 because the league averages were more similar across this stretch than it was in the years prior to that.

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Unconventional Wisdom – Expected Goal Models part 2

As I said previously, I wanted to take a look and see which of the fancystats sites I should use going forward in the 2026-27 NHL season. The last time I looked at Pearson Correlation Coefficients to compare the R-value of different Expected Goals models with actual goals I looked at the NHL team level data and the goaltending data over the past three seasons 2023-24 through 2025-26. So this time we are going to see how they compare when looking at skaters, both individually and on-ice, and will split up up between forwards and defensemen. Modern analytics has come a long way from the early days when puck possession was the be all end all of player evaluation and now the shot quality is far more important. So we are going to look at xG from six popular sources: the two long running sites Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey, my usual preference MoneyPuck, David Johnson’s Puckalytics, Patrick Bacon’s HockeyStats, and now I was asked to include BenchRates as well.

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Unconventional Wisdom – Expected Goal Models part 1

As we start to get into the 2026-27 NHL season I wanted to see which stats site would be the most useful to look at when comparing player performances. Since modern analytics emphasizes shot quality rather than classic puck possession metrics this means I wanted to compare the different Expected Goals models. So we are going to look at xG from five popular sources: the two long running sites Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey, my usual preference MoneyPuck, David Johnson’s Puckalytics, and Patrick Bacon’s HockeyStats. MoneyPuck did recently rework their model to make it more accurate, but I don’t think they applied the changes retroactively to past seasons data. Today we begin by looking at team level data as well as goaltending data.

2026 Pittsburgh Penguins Preseason Game 4

We have reached the final match of the 2026 NHL preseason and the Pens are using it as a dress rehearsal for the regular season with most of their core roster in the lineup. There are some players missing due to injury or family leave that may or may not be ready to go by the start of the season, so we have players filling in on the lines, and because two that were expected to be the depth forwards already played their second game last time we will have to see one of the younger prospects filling in before they get sent back down to WBS. They are bringing 22 players along on the trip to face the Buffalo Sabres on the road: 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders. We have a pretty good idea of what the line combinations and D pairs will like like since they have been practicing with the same combos most of camp, but there will be some uncertainty in the 4th line. This is the last game of Pittsburgh Penguins training camp so we should expect to see more players on waivers and getting reassigned to the AHL over the weekend.

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