Unconventional Wisdom – Expected Goal Models part 2

As I said previously, I wanted to take a look and see which of the fancystats sites I should use going forward in the 2026-27 NHL season. The last time I looked at Pearson Correlation Coefficients to compare the R-value of different Expected Goals models with actual goals I looked at the NHL team level data and the goaltending data over the past three seasons 2023-24 through 2025-26. So this time we are going to see how they compare when looking at skaters, both individually and on-ice, and will split up up between forwards and defensemen. Modern analytics has come a long way from the early days when puck possession was the be all end all of player evaluation and now the shot quality is far more important. So we are going to look at xG from six popular sources: the two long running sites Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey, my usual preference MoneyPuck, David Johnson’s Puckalytics, Patrick Bacon’s HockeyStats, and now I was asked to include BenchRates as well.

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Unconventional Wisdom – Expected Goal Models part 1

As we start to get into the 2026-27 NHL season I wanted to see which stats site would be the most useful to look at when comparing player performances. Since modern analytics emphasizes shot quality rather than classic puck possession metrics this means I wanted to compare the different Expected Goals models. So we are going to look at xG from five popular sources: the two long running sites Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey, my usual preference MoneyPuck, David Johnson’s Puckalytics, and Patrick Bacon’s HockeyStats. MoneyPuck did recently rework their model to make it more accurate, but I don’t think they applied the changes retroactively to past seasons data. Today we begin by looking at team level data as well as goaltending data.

2026 Pittsburgh Penguins Preseason Game 4

We have reached the final match of the 2026 NHL preseason and the Pens are using it as a dress rehearsal for the regular season with most of their core roster in the lineup. There are some players missing due to injury or family leave that may or may not be ready to go by the start of the season, so we have players filling in on the lines, and because two that were expected to be the depth forwards already played their second game last time we will have to see one of the younger prospects filling in before they get sent back down to WBS. They are bringing 22 players along on the trip to face the Buffalo Sabres on the road: 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders. We have a pretty good idea of what the line combinations and D pairs will like like since they have been practicing with the same combos most of camp, but there will be some uncertainty in the 4th line. This is the last game of Pittsburgh Penguins training camp so we should expect to see more players on waivers and getting reassigned to the AHL over the weekend.

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2026 Pittsburgh Penguins Preseason Game 3

The Pittsburgh Penguins head on the road for their penultimate match of the 2026 NHL preseason as they face off against the Columbus Blue Jackets. This time for their first away game they are taking along 23 players: 14 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders. They will have to scratch two forwards and a D before the puck drops, although one of the players on the roster is currently day-to-day so that may be why they took along 14 forwards rather than the 13 they dressed for the past two games, just in case he is not good to go. But this allows the team to get used to the normal regular season away game experience, their Emergency Backup Goaltender should be traveling along as well. Below we will go over the lineup for the game and speculate lines and D pairs based upon what they have been using in practice as well as using the post as an open game thread with updates during the game itself.

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2026 Pittsburgh Penguins Preseason Game 2

The Pittsburgh Penguins stay at home for the second of their back-to-back exhibition games, facing off against the Detroit Red Wings. Once again they have a list of 22 players who are suiting up for the game: 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders. They will have to scratch 1 F and 1 D before puck drop, so it emulates the way they normally handle the regular season with bringing along a full lineup and making the final decisions on who plays right before puck drops. Below we will go over the lineup for the game and speculate lines and D pairs based upon what they have been using in practice as well as using the post as an open game thread with updates during the game itself.

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